While it is important to recognize that CO2 is not the only significant greenhouse gas, the nature of its emissions and removals to/from the atmosphere is more complex than for other gases. This complexity is apparent from both science and policy perspectives and there is a strong common interest in making further progress on both fronts.

Ironically, while changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations are one of the best determined factors in anthropogenic climate change, the drivers for these changes are some of the least well understood. Uncertainty in carbon cycle processes at a global scale, and how these may evolve under climate change, has become one of the main uncertainties in projections of climate change. Our ability to validate carbon cycle models against observations remains limited due to difficulties in determining change in the terrestrial biosphere, much of which occurs as a result of poorly documented human actions in the past. Thus while fossil fuel emissions are tracking close to the upper end of the range of scenarios envisaged in the late 1990s, the situation for land-use change emissions remains uncertain.

From a policy perspective, the pervasive way in which CO2 emissions arise in our industrialised society creates major challenges for emission reductions. The very different nature of industrial and land-use change emissions, the difficulty of monitoring the latter, and their different dependence on historical actions has also led to a complex policy framework that attempts to balance many interests. This has not been helped by misunderstandings across the science-policy interface that in some cases have taken many years to address.

Improving understanding of the carbon cycle clearly has advantages for policy and science. Some progress is being made in the expansion of monitoring and research efforts to target specific policy relevant science questions, but the reluctance of funding agencies to support monitoring remains a real constraint. Scientists need to do more to acknowledge and explain the limits of their present understanding. Policy makers likewise need to acknowledge that management of CO2 emissions and removals will have to proceed in the face of large uncertainties in some respects. Both communities should work together more closely to identify pragmatic near-term objectives that would improve policy frameworks and advance scientific understanding.

Measurements of atmospheric trace gas composition from times before reliable direct observations began in the late 20th century come from air enclosed in polar ice and firn. This presentation will review the evidence for changes in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 and their isotopes over the past 2000 years found from this archive. This period is dominated by concentration growth due to industrial and agricultural emissions over the past 200 years, causing trace gas radiative forcing to increase at unprecedented rates. It also contains evidence for early natural and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 variations and for climate-carbon feedbacks.
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In the late 1950s Dave Keeling of Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California began a series of continuous atmospheric CO2 measurements at a mountain top site (Mauna Loa) in Hawaii. These data with their compelling and eye catching message of the rapidly increasing burden of CO2 in the atmosphere have been central to our understanding of the impact of industrial and agricultural emissions of carbon into the Earth system. In 1969 Dave Keeling and colleagues initiated work with the DSIR in Lower Hutt to begin a joint project which saw the advent of continuous atmospheric CO2 measurements in New Zealand. This record, currently maintained by NIWA at Baring Head, forms the longest continuous record of CO2 in the Southern Hemisphere. In this presentation I will look at the history of the New Zealand atmospheric CO2 project and review some of the early decisions made on the measurement site, automation and instrumentation and the implications of the data set.  

The ocean is the dominant reservoir of carbon in the Earth’s carbon cycle, containing about 40,000 Gt, much larger than the atmosphere (700 Gt) or biosphere (600 Gt). The reason that CO2 released by fossil fuel burning has not all been absorbed by the ocean is that uptake of CO2 is limited by the slow rate of water circulation in the deep ocean (time scale 1600 yr). Nonetheless, at least 30% of anthropogenic  CO2 has already been absorbed, mainly in the upper levels of the ocean. Absorption is not uniform across the ocean’s surface, but depends on various physical processes. Some regions, e.g. at high latitude, are strong sinks for atmospheric CO2, while some areas are actually sources of CO2 for the atmosphere.  Our recent research for a time series across the Otago Shelf shows that there is a strong biologically-driven seasonal cycle in the degree to which the ocean has absorbed excess CO2, with maximum absorption in later winter. The implications of CO2 absorption by the ocean on biological systems will be discussed in this context.
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Earth’s oceans have taken up 48% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production since 1800, and about 25% of this ocean sink is believed to occur in the Southern Ocean.   Yet there are still major gaps in our understanding of the processes controlling air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean and their response to climate change. 

We explore the constraints that can be applied to the past and present fluxes of CO2 into the Southern Ocean by oceanic and atmospheric observations and models.  First, we use inverse methods to separately estimate the natural air-sea fluxes of CO2, which would have already existed in pre-industrial times, and the anthropogenic uptake of CO2 using ocean interior observations and ocean general circulation models (OGCMs).  We find that during pre-industrial times the Southern Ocean was a source of CO2 to the atmosphere, but that the Southern Ocean is currently a net sink due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 since pre-industrial times.  We then examine what the latitudinal gradient of natural radiocarbon indicates about changes in ventilation of the Southern Ocean, and the implications for the Southern Ocean response to past and future climate change
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Phytoplankton are microscopic plants that are ubiquitous in the lit surface waters of the ocean.  They are responsible for half of global carbon fixation (via photosynthesis), and moreover also influence the production of other important climate reactive gases (such as DMS). Climate change is projected to alter ocean chemical and physical properties, that will in turn influence phytoplankton dynamics via alterations in carbonate chemistry, nutrient and trace metal inventories and upper ocean light environment.  Given the pivotal role that phytoplankton play in global carbon fixation, it is important to ascertain how they will respond to this new matrix of environmental conditions.  Will climate-change mediated changes in phytoplankton productivity result in a negative or positive feedback, and will this vary regionally?

In this presentation, we will explore these questions - for the Southern Ocean- using a fully coupled, global carbon-climate model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon), we quantify anthropogenic climate change relative to the background natural interannual variability for the Southern Ocean over the period 2000 and 2100.  Our conclusions are drawn from the interpretation of  model results using our understanding of the environmental control of phytoplankton growth rates for this oceanographic province.

Iron fertilisation - can biogeoengineering enhance the ocean carbon sink?
Cliff Law, NIWA, Wellington

The biological pump, which involves CO2 uptake by phytoplankton and subsequent vertical particle export, maintains the ocean carbon sink. Measurements in the late 80’s led to John Martins “iron hypothesis” which postulated that inefficient phytoplankton growth in regions of perennially high nutrients was due to limited iron availability, and further that higher carbon export in the last glacial maximum reflected elevated iron levels. This stimulated a decade of in situ mesoscale iron experiments in different HNLC (High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll) regions that primarily confirmed iron limitation of
phytoplankton, but did not identify an associated significant increase in carbon sequestration. Nevertheless Martins challenge, “Give me a tanker full of iron, and I’ll give you an ice age” instilled the idea that iron fertilisation was a potential silver bullet for ameliorating the increase in atmospheric CO2, paving the way for promotion of large-scale fertilisation by commercial organisations. This talk will consider the results of the iron experiments and what they tell us regarding the efficacy and viability of large-scale fertilisation, the logistical challenges of implementation, verification, and monitoring of associated side-effects, and the evolving legislation.

The rapid tectonic uplift of the New Zealand (NZ) landscape drives dramatic erosion and deposition processes that have been – in many areas – accelerated by land-use change during since Polynesian and particularly European settlement. Previous work has shown that New Zealand’s rivers presently deliver approximately 3±1 Tg C y-1 to the oceans, of which 65% is derived from the most mountainous 9% of NZ. Moreover, 20% is derived from steeplands dominated by human-induced land cover on soft rocks covering only 2% of NZ. Recent global calculations emphasize that moderate levels of erosion and deposition on productive land represents a net sink for C, yet appear to underestimate the likely sink magnitude for NZ. We demonstrate calculation methods for providing the first estimates of NZ’s net terrestrial C sink induced by erosion and deposition. Our calculations highlight the growing recognition that mountain belts create a global C sink via organic carbon burial rather than silicate weathering.

New Zealand has high erosive carbon (C) yields to the ocean on world standards. The yields are about equal between the North and South Islands and are especially high in Westland and eastern central North Island, where erosion is exacerbated by the near-complete removal of native forest cover. The organic C transfer is about 4 Mt yr-1 to the ocean, similar to NZ’s plantation forest annual C sequestration and about ½ its fossil fuel C emissions. Much of the material is probably metabolised on the shelf, making it a significant but unquantified term in NZ’s CO2 inventory. 

Most productivity in NZ shelf waters is driven by oceanic rather than terrestrial nutrients. Examples include West Coast South Island and northeast North Island (Hauraki) shelves where upwelling is the major driver of production. The Hauraki shelf is probably net-autotrophic, as is the Otago shelf where net CO2 flux has been measured directly. However, closer to the coastline, the Firth of Thames is strongly net-heterotrophic and a source of dissolved inorganic C (DIC), driven by high nutrient loading from farmland. In contrast, Nelson Bays are net-autotrophic and sinks for DIC, driven by predominate oceanic inorganic nutrient supply. These systems demonstrate contrasting effects of terrestrial vs. ocean-side dominance of nutrient supply on C metabolism in the NZ context.

Geological sequestration (geosequestration) of carbon dioxide or Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is being increasingly identified world-wide as a potential mitigation measure in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from energy production using fossil fuels. Several small- to moderate-scale projects are currently sequestering CO2 underground in Norway, Canada and Algeria with larger-scale projects planned for Europe and Australia.

Opportunities for geosequestration in New Zealand are currently being assessed with an emphasis on site characterization, monitoring and verification and risk assessment. This research is aimed at establishing a knowledge and capability platform for geosequestration in New Zealand, paving the way for pilot-scale injection projects, and to help reduce New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a NASA-funded satellite due for launch in December 2008.  It is slated to be the first satellite instrument designed and dedicated exclusively for global observations of CO2. It will determine the mean mixing ratio of CO2 in the path from the ground to the top of the atmosphere, known as XCO2. OCO will acquire data with the accuracy and measurement density required to identify CO2 sources and sinks, and their seasonal variation, on regional scales (~ 1000 x 1000 km) over the globe. For this, a precision of 1-2 ppm (0.3-05%) in the monthly average, regional results will be required. OCO consists of three grating spectrometers, measuring spectral bands of CO2 near 2.1 and 1.6  wavelength, and the O2 band at 0.76 , with a very small footprint in the nadir of 3 km2. It has a minimum design lifetime of 2 years. Its data will be validated by comparison to the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) of upward-looking spectrometers measuring the same spectral bands, which will in turn be tied to in situ measurements made at the surface and from aircraft. 
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CarbonTracker:  An annually-updated CO2 reanalysis from the NOAA  Earth System Research Laboratory
Andrew R. Jacobson^1,2, Wouter Peters^2,3, Kenneth A. Masarie², Pieter  P. Tans², Arlyn Andrews², Lori M. P. Bruhwiler², Thomas J. Conway², John B. Miller^1,2,  Gabrielle Pétron^1,2, Colm Sweeney<sup>1,2

1</sup> CIRES, University of Colorado
² NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
³ Wageningen Research University, The Netherlands

CarbonTracker is a system for inferring land and ocean surface exchange of carbon dioxide from observed atmospheric CO2  molefractions.  All of its results, including estimated fluxes,  inferred atmospheric CO2 distributions, input observations, and the  model source code are available online at http:// carbontracker.noaa.gov.  Each year in October, NOAA will release a  new version of the product, bringing estimates up to date and  incorporating new observations and model improvements.  The most  recent CarbonTracker release, covering the period 2000-2006,  assimilated over 37,000 CO2 observations from the NOAA observational  programs and Cooperative Air Sampling Network, Environment Canada,  and from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research.  This  data assimilation system computes adjustments to first-guess fluxes  using an ensemble Kalman filter built into the TM5 offline tracer  transport model.  These first-guess fluxes come from external process  models of the terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and fossil fuel  emissions.  This modular structure allows CarbonTracker to use a  variety of advanced process models to test hypotheses about the  carbon cycle and to explicitly account for uncertainty in our  knowledge of biogeochemical cycling.  In this presentation I will  briefly introduce the CarbonTracker system and discuss an interesting  problem involving air-sea fluxes in the southern hemisphere.
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This presentation will provide a brief summary of recent developments in climate change policy, both internationally and in New Zealand, outline the key dilemmas and challenges facing policy makers as they seek to formulate effective measures to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change, and consider the main policy options available. With the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expiring at the end of 2012, particular attention will be given to the current international negotiations to secure a new agreement on climate change for post-2012. Also considered will be the implications for New Zealand of such an agreement, as well as the possible failure of the international community to reach a new consensus.
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Well-designed climate change policy requires careful integration of economic and scientific knowledge. Some of this is done, particularly for global cost benefit analysis of climate policy, through large integrated assessment models. This paper discusses a different approach that we are taking in New Zealand that responds partly to our interest in a different set of more ‘micro’ questions and is also cognizant of our limited resources. The EcoClimate collaboration, under a FRST-funded project that began in October last year, are creating a modelling framework that can link a series of pre-existing models in a variety of ways. Each policy question will utilise a different set of linkages.  We use the pre-existing models to ensure that we use the best available local knowledge. The integration is done through active collaboration between the specialists in each of the disciplines required. Two examples of work are a study of the impacts of climate change on pastoral agriculture and hence the economy; and simulations of the likely effect of methane charges on land use patterns.
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Landcare Research has used knowledge of the terrestrial carbon cycle to pilot a trading system for New Zealand landowners to sell carbon credits from regenerating forests in a pre-Kyoto market.  Approximately 18,000 tonnes CO2e have been traded through the Emissions-Biodiversity Exchange (EBEX21) project.  In this presentation we share our experiences of engagement with the wider landowning community, including explicit consideration of the potential for māori participation in carbon farming.  In addition, we briefly examine early sub-national responses to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Climate change is real and will create both new risks and opportunities for all interested in participating. Not only is it real but is it new and breaking many of the long held rules and conventions held by political, science and business leaders alike. Resource management, environmental degradation and global warming are now at the forefront of international discussions. The challenge for leaders today is to effectively interpret these signs and view day to day operations in light of these changing global trends and patterns. New business opportunities will arise, while those businesses who fail to interpret these signs will fail.

Sustainability is not new for Māori. Māori have a large and growing stake in New Zealand’s primary sectors and therefore in this respect, do not have a choice but to be actively engaged in the climate change debate. Climate change will create new sustainable land development options where in Europe 26 billion Euros of carbon credit trades occurred.

Māori are already showing leadership domestically and internationally at both policy and practical levels, but will still need to think strategically and critically about how to navigate this new territory to realize the value while always holding firm to the values (of sustainability) handed down from our tipuna.
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The development and publication of an annual inventory of all human-induced emissions and removals of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol is part of New Zealand’s obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Articles 4 and 12) and the Kyoto Protocol (Article 7). The inventory is the primary tool for measuring New Zealand’s progress against these international obligations. On April 15th 2008, the Ministry for the Environment will submit an updated national inventory to the secretariat of the UNFCCC. The latest inventory will cover the period 1990-2006.

The presentation will cover the background to New Zealand’s annual inventory under the UNFCCC, how the inventory relates to reporting and accounting under the Kyoto Protocol and present key figures from the latest inventory.

Quantifying the carbon budget for terrestrial systems, including estimates of uncertainty in inventories, is essential to meet New Zealand’s reporting requirements and establish a base for calculating emissions liabilities. Further, there is a need to estimate the effects of land-use change and predict the impacts of changing climate carbon inventory. These calculations need to be supported by credible measurements of carbon stocks and rates of exchange in above- and below-ground components for all land-uses, based on a sound understanding of ecosystem processes.

We start this session by identifying the requirements for reporting on carbon stocks, followed by a presentation of the best estimates available for carbon balance in New Zealand. Potential changes in soil carbon storage with changing land-use are identified as an important issue needing urgent attention. We then explore approaches to measure carbon exchange directly at ecosystem scales for pasture and forest systems and the potential for increasing carbon storage in soils using biochar. Speakers at the panel discussion will be asked to identify future research needs.

Much more of the state-of-the-art underpinning research leading to reducing uncertainty in carbon exchange and storage will be presented in posters that accompany this session.
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To meet obligations under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, New Zealand is required to estimate, in an unbiased manner, forest and soil carbon stock change, over the Protocol’s first commitment period (2008-2012). The carbon stock changes required to be reported result from direct human induced change associated with land use, land-use change, and forestry.

New Zealand’s Land Use and Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS) has been designed to meet the carbon reporting and accounting requirements under the Kyoto Protocol. This presentation describes the overall design of LUCAS, and the forest and soil inventory, and land use mapping work programmes.
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Our current national estimate of New Zealands terrestrial above- and below-ground annual NPP (190 Tg C y-1 ) is approximately balanced by soil respiration (heterotrophic and autotrophic) Further revision of this national terrestrial C budget  will result from improved estimates of soil C changes with land-use change, and from erosion effects on soil C stocks.  Since 1990, soil C changes due to exotic forest plantings have decreased soil-C stocks by up to 0.3 Tg C yr-1, compared with gains in biomass C of about 2 Tg C y-1.  Recent deforestation for pastoral farming is resulting in vegetation-C losses (c. 1 Tg C y-1), partially offset by small increases in soil C. Some management-induced soil C changes in pastures are also apparent. Erosion-C losses to the ocean of about 3 Tg y-1 may be largely negated by C accretion on old erosion scars. Overall, data suggest New Zealand’s terrestrial ecosystems are close to net C balance. However, among large uncertainties remaining are those from land area changes, land-use and management effects on soil C, and future impacts of biofuel production and biochar use

Since 2004, we have resampled soil profiles under pasture to determine whether soil C and N is changing.  Profiles were first sampled between the 1960s and 80s. To date we have 65 profiles resampled.  Landuses sampled include intensive (mainly dairy), and a range of less intensive land uses (drystock) including sheep, beef, deer, horses, dairy runoff etc.  Eleven soil orders are represented with most profiles sampled to at least 60 cm, many to 1 m in depth. Profiles are sampled for % carbon, nitrogen and bulk density by horizon, archived soil samples from the same horizons are also reanalyzed to reduce laboratory error. Analysis of this data demonstrated that (i) intensive dairy on flat land non-allophanic soils (19 profiles) have lost significant soil carbon (about 1.0 t ha-1 yr-1) since first sampled, (ii) dairy on flat allophanic soils (13 profiles), drystock on flat land non-allophanic soils (23 profiles) and drystock on allophanic soils (2 profiles) have not changed in soil C status; and, (iii) drystock on North Island hill country (8 profiles) have gained soil C (about 1.3 t ha-1 yr-1) . A number of hypotheses have been proposed to account for changes in soil C and are being tested. Further sampling is planned to extend the geographic spread and coverage of Soil Orders.

Simple climate models can be used to tackle a range of climate change policy relevant questions. These models are globally aggregated models that simulate the effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere, the effects of those concentration changes on radiative forcing, and finally the effects of the changes in radiative forcing on global mean surface temperature and sea-level rise. This presentation will provide a brief overview of a simple climate model in operation at NIWA, recent extensions and enhancements that have been made to the model, and a summary of some of the policy relevant questions that the model has been used to address. This includes the development of alternatives to the Global Warming Potential (GWP) concept as an equivalence metric for non-CO2 GHG emissions, investigation of the implications of a per-capita GHG emissions target within a Kyoto Protocol context, and analyses of multi-gas emission profiles to meet climate change stabilization targets. Plans for future development of the model and applications for the advanced model will be discussed.

Climate change is a fast moving area of public policy. Since the Government ratified and initiated its climate change policy package in 2002, the broader situation in which climate change policy operates, particularly as it relates to energy and forestry use, has changed considerably.

As a Party to the Kyoto Protocol, New Zealand is committed to reducing its emissions to 1990 levels, on average, over the period 2008-2012, or taking responsibility for any excess emissions by purchasing or generating Kyoto-compliant units. The nature of any international commitments beyond 2012 is currently being be negotiated.

The Government has a series of solutions to address climate change and our international commitments. The presentation will out line the New Zealand response and talk about these initiatives including the proposed New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme
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Net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) responds to diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual variations of the key climate drivers solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Land management practices may substantially disrupt natural forcing of NEE and the cumulative effect of these may be to alter the short- and long-term soil carbon store.

The eddy covariance (EC) technique is used worldwide to assess NEE at a range of timescales, with objectives ranging from half-hourly process-level investigations, to decadal-scale assessments of the role of climate change on interannual variability of carbon fluxes. While the majority of studies have focussed on forest biomes, there are substantial opportunities for applying the technique to pastoral land management issues.

In previous studies using the EC technique we have measured annual and interannual CO2 budgets of two peat wetland ecosystems (gains of 0.5–2 tC ha–1 yr–1) and assessed a whole-farm carbon budget for a dairy farm on deep peat soils (loss of 1 tC ha–1 yr–1), where the impact of a single late-winter over-grazing event distorted the annual C budget by >0.2 tC ha–1. Our current work includes assessing the effects of drought and pasture renewal on carbon exchange for grazing land, and investigating the drivers of soil respiration at the hectare scale for a cutover peat bog.
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Forests ecosystems mediate large fluxes of CO2 that can result in relatively long-term storage of carbon as wood. Biological and physical processes can alter the balance between forest carbon gain and loss. Recent developments in eddy covariance allow long-term measurements to be made of net CO2 flux between the atmosphere and the vegetation surface. These measurements can be used to examine processes that govern CO2 exchange and provide reliable parameters for modeling. The determination of annual net fluxes is still difficult and the determination of error terms are problematic – but it is the best independent technique we have at present for measuring net ecosystem exchange and verifying models.

In New Zealand, eddy covariance measurements have been made above contrasting forest types (a wet, mature, podocarp forest, and dry seral, kanuka forest). The exchange of CO2 in both forests was strongly effected by soil moisture content, direct and diffuse light levels and temperature. Soil respiration was a major contributor to net CO2 exchange at both sites and was strongly influenced (at the kanuka site) by changes in understory biomass, litter quality and plant phenology.
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Understanding what drives changes in soil C has rarely been as important, as at present, with its implications for sustainable resource use and its role in climate change mitigation. Doing so requires the integration of all science disciplines (plant, animal and soil) involved in our grassland ecosystems, and there are challenges in this, starting with a need to share perspectives, and to understand each others definitions and methods.

We will present what we describe as a 'physiologists' viewpoint of C cycling in managed grassland, stressing the effects of fertiliser inputs and the intensity of utilisation. This is founded on long-standing measurements of C fluxes, notably in grazed grassland, and has formed the basis of some widely recognised models for C exchange under climate change scenarios. We recognise some differences in emphasis between this approach and a 'soil science' perspective, as to the relative role of the plant shoot, directly and in producing shoot/surface litter, on fluxes to soil C.

Our aim in this talk is to stimulate debate towards a common framework for understanding the drivers of change in soil C in managed grassland.
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Understanding the Role of Biological Carbon Sequestration in Soils: the Massey University Biochar Initiative
Attilio Pigneri¹, Mike Hedley^2
1Centre for Energy Research – Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
²Soil and Earth Sciences Group – Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

In the wider context of greenhouse gas mitigation options for the land management sectors (land-use, land-use change and forestry, LULUCF), biochar represents a new, promising, application but also one for which both basic and applied research are still required.
The Biochar Initiative, was launched by Massey University as part of its successful bid to establish the two new MAF Professorships in “Biochar and Bioenergy Pyrolysis Engineering”, and in “Biochar and Soil Science Research”.
The Biochar Initiative is a wide ranging, multi-year internationally-linked research, development and demonstration (RD&D) program.
 A number of research tasks are organized into three closely linked streams of RD&D activities:
Pyrolysis Plant and Biochar Engineering,
Soil Science and Biochar, and
Biochar and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies.

This paper reports on the program of RD&D activities within the Biochar Initiative and their role in advancing the understanding of biochar as a mitigation solution to global climate change and to enable its uptake in New Zealand – particularly by the agricultural, pastoral and forestry sectors.
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